# dic calculation 

x<-gss1990.original

p<-c(0.1031,0.08369)
r<-c(0.6079,0.3968)


ly1 <- dnbinom( x[,1], r[1], p[1], log = TRUE)
ly2 <- dnbinom( x[,1], r[2], p[2], log = TRUE)

ll1 <- sum( x[,2]*ly1 )
ll2 <- sum( x[,3]*ly2 )

ll<- -2*(ll1+ll2)

lbar <- 2870.0	
pD <- lbar-ll 

DIC<-lbar+2*pD